Health in Clay County

FACTANKER — For Clay County, North Carolina, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention publish modelled estimates for 40 health measures, survey years 2022–2023. 40 of them carry a 95% confidence interval, which is shown beside the figure. Each measure appears twice: as the raw local rate, and age-adjusted so it can be compared with other counties. These are estimates from a telephone survey, not counts of diagnoses.

Where the number looks different but is not. For food insecurity this county reads 12.8% against a median of 15.8% — but the 95% confidence interval runs from 9.8% to 16.7%, and the median falls inside it. The difference is not established. 26 of the 40 comparable measures here are in that position, and a ranking would still put this county somewhere.

The least certain figure here: obesity. The estimate is 35.5%, but the 95% interval runs 27.2% to 44.0% — a span of 16.8 points, in a county of 11,864 residents. Intervals widen where the model had little local survey data to work from, so this is a statement about how much is known here, not about the county's health.

How much the age structure matters here. For high blood pressure medication the raw local rate is 83.0% but the age-adjusted rate is 57.2% — 25.8 points apart, the widest gap of any measure on record here. The population here is older than the reference, so raw rates overstate how this county compares. Use the raw rate to plan local care, the adjusted one to compare counties.

Furthest highest against other counties: depression. Age-adjusted prevalence here is 27.9%, against a median of 23.9% across the 2,956 counties with a figure for 2023 — 17% above that median. Age-adjusted, so this is not an artefact of how old the population here is.

Exception or pattern. Of the 40 age-adjusted measures that can be compared here, 10 sit above the median of all reporting counties and 30 below (25% above). That is a broad pattern, not one measure out of line.

Source: PLACES, published by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. These are model-based estimates, not a survey of this county. The CDC takes the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System — a telephone survey — and uses a multilevel regression with poststratification to produce a value for every county, including counties where few or no people were interviewed. Read them as modelled estimates, the same way the childcare price pages should be read.

Two rates, two questions. The raw (crude) rate answers “how common is this among people who live here”, and it is the figure for local planning. The age-adjusted rate removes the effect of the local age structure and is the only one that can be compared between counties — a county of retirees will show more arthritis simply because it is older. Both are on this page, under separate names, so neither can be mistaken for the other.

Every value carries a 95% confidence interval, and it is shown. Where the interval of this county includes the median of all counties, a difference is not established — however confidently a ranking presents it. This page says so where it applies.

Not a diagnosis count, not a claims figure and not a death rate: the underlying question is what people reported about themselves in a telephone interview. Self-reporting has known biases, and they differ by condition.

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