treasury · yield curve inversion

Is the yield curve inverted, and how often has it been since 1990?

On Oct 22, 2026 the 10-year yield was 4.96% and the 2-year 4.65%, a spread of +31 bp: the curve is not inverted. Since 1990 the 10-year has closed below the 2-year on 1,052 trading days in 10 different years; the deepest inversion in the record was -108 bp.

10Y–2Y: +31 bpINVERTED DAYS SINCE 1990: 1,052

Cite: FACTANKER, https://factanker.com/treasury-yields/inversion

What stands out

Inverted days per year, 10-year minus 2-year

An inverted curve means the 2-year yield is above the 10-year; it has preceded every US recession since 1990, with lags of months to two years, and is not a forecast here.

Year	Trading days	Days inverted	Lowest spread	Highest spread
2026	203	0	+20 bp	+74 bp
2025	249	0	+20 bp	+73 bp
2024	250	166	-47 bp	+33 bp
2023	250	250	-108 bp	-13 bp
2022	249	125	-84 bp	+89 bp
2021	251	0	+72 bp	+159 bp
2020	251	0	+12 bp	+83 bp
2019	250	3	-4 bp	+34 bp
2018	249	0	+11 bp	+78 bp
2017	250	0	+51 bp	+130 bp
2016	250	0	+76 bp	+134 bp
2015	251	0	+119 bp	+177 bp
2014	250	0	+146 bp	+261 bp
2013	250	0	+146 bp	+266 bp
2012	250	0	+121 bp	+200 bp
2011	250	0	+152 bp	+291 bp
2010	251	0	+199 bp	+290 bp
2009	250	0	+150 bp	+282 bp
2008	251	0	+103 bp	+260 bp
2007	251	72	-15 bp	+104 bp
2006	250	163	-19 bp	+21 bp
2005	250	3	-2 bp	+113 bp
2004	250	0	+112 bp	+246 bp
2003	250	0	+196 bp	+275 bp
2002	250	0	+163 bp	+237 bp
2001	248	0	+5 bp	+210 bp
2000	251	227	-52 bp	+31 bp
1999	251	0	+5 bp	+40 bp
1998	250	27	-7 bp	+60 bp
1997	250	0	+3 bp	+60 bp
1996	252	0	+41 bp	+86 bp
1995	250	0	+15 bp	+60 bp
1994	249	0	+9 bp	+167 bp
1993	250	0	+138 bp	+229 bp
1992	251	0	+175 bp	+265 bp
1991	250	0	+85 bp	+218 bp
1990	250	16	-14 bp	+93 bp

Method

Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (XML feed), one record per trading day since 1990, values in percent as published. Par yields are read from the Treasury's own curve; nothing is interpolated here. Spreads are simple differences in percentage points, shown in basis points. The 1-month, 2-month and 4-month tenors exist only for recent years. Every number links to its filed record. Updated each trading day after the Treasury publishes.

Today's curve →10-year series →2-year series →

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